June 2023

Volume 2023 Issue 6

Dear Gene Carter Team,

Summary

It’s the heat of the summer but buyers are still buying and sellers are still selling. I want to take a look this month at some seasonal sales patterns that we are seeing now in comparison with patterns we saw a few years ago. First, some local happenings.

New Schools, Security, Safety

There have been quite a few new schools built in our area in recent years and they are impressive - modern designs, high ceilings - not the clunky low buildings most people are accustomed to seeing. 

Three new elementary schools are in the design stages - two in the Carolina Forest area of Myrtle Beach and a replacement school for St. James Elementary on the south end. The estimated cost for each school is in the $64 million to $66 million range. One reason for the high cost is a number of added safety features. In addition to the added security measures in these new schools, our local school system will spend around $15 million in security features over the next three years.

Ocean Outfall Project in North Myrtle Beach

A stormwater drainage project has been underway on the oceanfront at 18th Ave. North in North Myrtle Beach since January and is expected to be completed in late 2024. A large pipe is being extended into the ocean approximately 2000 feet where it will discharge water from storm drains from city streets. Presently there are small drains on the beach every few hundred feet but this would clear out a large stretch of beach by combining them into one underwater pipe not visible from the beach. 

This is the Stormwater Outfall Program’s sixth project on the Grand Strand and will cost around $35 million. North Myrtle Beach will ultimately need about six more of these to enable the removals of all beach storm drains in North Myrtle Beach. Myrtle Beach has been constructing outfalls as well with another project expected to begin at 24th Ave. N. in September.

Oceanfront and Resort Condo Market Update

Buyer activity has been down for the past month but it could be largely seasonal. Contrary to most people's beliefs, May through August have historically been relatively slow sales months for oceanfront and resort condos (See more on this below).

The number of active oceanfront listings increased sharply for the third month in a row - from 483 in May to 539 in June. Most of the additional active listings were small condos – efficiencies and one bedrooms - although inventory has been slowly increasing for larger condos too. The number of active condo listings off the beach increased as well, from 852 to 883. (See chart in Newsletter below).

The number of new oceanfront condo listings dropped 8.8% and the number of active listings increased by 11.6%. The number of closed sales increased by 4.1%. The reason for the increase in active listings despite fewer new listings and more closed sales was that the number of pending sales was down 17.2% so many of the listings are not selling quickly. (See chart in Newsletter).

Sellers: There are still buyers out there pulling the trigger but they are extremely aware of current pricing and generally unwilling to pay higher than recent closed sale prices. 

For most larger condos, prices are still at or close to their peak. Smaller condo prices are more competitive and are generally down a little from their peaks but still 50% to 100% more than they were a year and a half ago. Please let me know if you want to discuss selling. 

Buyers: There are more choices now than there have been in two years. Prices have leveled off and are softening a bit. Please contact Teressa or Kevin for assistance.

New Home Sales (Resales too)

New Home sales are still going strong with 464 closed sales in June versus 430 in May. Resales were even stronger, 513 in June versus 441 in May. Keep in mind that these numbers actually lag the market by at least 30 to 60 days because of the time it takes to close (even longer for new construction with time required to build). (See chart in Newsletter).

Current Seasonal Market Trends Versus Historical Trends

Real estate sales in most markets tend to perform predictably through the seasons most years. I tracked oceanfront condo sales and listings diligently for many years and saw consistent seasonal patterns. I’ve started tracking this again starting with 2021.

It’s important to remember that, even though the numbers of sales go up and down from month to month, there are still people buying and selling every day of every month. Also, the prices do not necessarily follow the same pattern as the sales activity (number of contracts) so, if you want to sell, don't wait until the busy sales season to list. The next couple of graphs will show you why spring prices aren’t always the highest even though that’s when the most contracts are written.

Seasonal New Contracts

Let’s start with new contracts by month. Note that this is different from closings. Contracts give you a better idea of the market at a specific time. Closings actually tell you how things were 60 days earlier because of the lag time. 

The graph in the newsletter below shows monthly oceanfront condo sales by contract date for 2013 through 2016 with the 4 years superimposed over each other. What’s striking is how similar the patterns are from year to year. Sales start out strong in January – already stronger than midsummer. They peak in March and April then flatten out during May through August. There is generally another smaller peak in early fall and then sales are pretty strong through November until they drop precipitously in December. One other thing of note is that there seem to be approximately the same number of overall sales each year. The patterns track almost on top of each other. This is because the yearly pace of oceanfront condo sales stayed in a remarkably narrow range for over a decade, between 1000 and 1200 sales per year.

The next graph in the newsletter shows new monthly oceanfront condo contract totals from Jan. 2021 to April of 2023 overlaid on the same graph. Although the spring peak is not as pronounced in 2022, the yearly patterns are very similar to those from years earlier. One difference is that the number of sales is notably lower from year to year (unlike 2013 to 2016 when the total numbers of sales each year were very similar and the patterns tracked on top of each other). I doubt this is a long-term trend. The 2021 market, and 2022 to a lesser degree, were just exceptional. 

Seasonal New Listings

The graph in the newsletter shows new oceanfront condo listings per month for 2013 to 2016 with the monthly listing totals superimposed over each other. This looks a lot like the pattern for sales contracts with a big peak in March and April. When I previously mentioned that prices are not necessarily lower in the spring, it’s because, even though buyer activity is heavier, there are also lots of new listings coming into the market at the same time to keep the supply relatively high.

The next graph in the newsletter shows new oceanfront condo listings for 2021 through June of this year. The patterns, particularly for 2022, look very similar to the ones from years past. 2021 and 2023 both show peaks in the spring/early summer. We’ll have to see where 2023 goes from here.

Why Wait Until Spring to List? 

These listing graphs lead me to a topic I mention every year about this time (and I will bring it up again for the next two months). Why do people wait until spring to list their properties for sale? This especially makes no sense for investors who rely on rental income. Why pay the carrying costs through the off-season to sell in the spring right before income picks up again? If you think you may be selling within the next 12 months, now is the best time to get it on the market. A contract in the next several weeks would put your closing date right at the end of the peak summer season. Please contact me if you would like to discuss this.

Please Contact The Beach Pro Team If:

You are thinking of buying or selling an oceanfront or resort condo in our area

                                                                  Or

You are considering moving to our area or know someone else who is

                                                                   Or

You are an agent who has clients thinking of moving here or buying or selling in our area

                                                                   Or

You currently own a condo in our area and want a permanent home here

Check out our usual Grand Strand Market Reports, Sales and Listing Updates, my Best Buys, and new Beach Pro Team reviews.

Greetings from The Grand Strand,

I hope everybody is having a great summer and had a super Fourth of July! It’s been hot and steamy here as it has been through much of the country but buyers are still buying and sellers are still selling. I want to take a look this month at some seasonal sales patterns that we are seeing now in comparison with patterns we saw a few years ago. There are similarities but differences too. First, let’s take a look at some local happenings.

___________________________________________________________________

New Schools, Security, Safety

There have been quite a few new schools built in our area in recent years and they are impressive – not the clunky low buildings most people are accustomed to seeing. When he first set foot in his new middle school a few years ago, my son saw the high ceilings and modern design and commented that it looked like headquarters for The Avengers.

Three new elementary schools are in the design stages - two in the Carolina Forest area of Myrtle Beach and a replacement school for St. James Elementary on the south end. The estimated cost for each school is in the $64 million to $66 million range. One reason for the high cost is a number of added safety features. For instance, the windows are much higher than in traditional buildings.

School safety and school security are being addressed in several locations. It’s anticipated that our local school system will spend around $15 million in security features over the next three years.

Ten Oaks Middle School, Carolina Forest (MB)

Ocean Outfall Project in North Myrtle Beach

A stormwater drainage project has been underway on the oceanfront at 18th Ave. North in North Myrtle Beach since January and is expected to be completed in late 2024. A large pipe is being extended into the ocean approximately 2000 feet where it will discharge water from storm drains from city streets. Presently there are small drains on the beach every few hundred feet but this would clear out a large stretch of beach by combining them into one underwater pipe not visible from the beach.  Releasing this discharge underwater far from the surf will help prevent beach erosion and maintain healthy water quality in the swimming zones. Incidentally, shell collectors have gathered around the site to find unusual shells and shark’s teeth.

This is the Stormwater Outfall Program’s sixth project on the Grand Strand and will cost around $35 million. North Myrtle Beach will ultimately need about six more of these to enable the removals of all beach storm drains in North Myrtle Beach. The city of Myrtle Beach has spent around $75 million on outfall projects. The EPA praised its 4th Ave., North project which was completed in 2016. Another outfall project is expected to begin in Myrtle Beach at 24th Ave. N. in September.

Stormwater Project at 18th Ave N (NMB)

Oceanfront and Resort Condo Market Update

Buyer activity has been down for the past month but it could be largely seasonal. Contrary to most people's beliefs, May through August have historically been relatively slow sales months for oceanfront and resort condos. I'll cover this subject in more detail below.

Below is the updated chart for active oceanfront condo listings. The number of active oceanfront listings increased sharply for the third month in a row - from 483 in May to 539 in June. Most of the additional active listings were small condos – efficiencies and one bedrooms - although inventory has been slowly increasing for larger condos too. The number of active condo listings off the beach increased as well, from 852 to 883.

The chart below shows month to month metrics for oceanfront condos. The average selling price increased slightly again (2.4%) to $332,664. The number of new listings dropped 8.8% and the number of active listings increased by 11.6%. The number of closed sales increased by 4.1%. So why did the number of active listings increase while the number of closed sales increased and new listings decreased? It’s because the number of pending sales was down 17.2%. In other words, many of the newer listings are not selling quickly.

Sellers: There are still buyers out there pulling the trigger. However, they are extremely aware of current pricing and generally unwilling to pay higher than recent closed sale prices. I’ve really noticed this in my listings. I had a few with prices set marginally above market In the spring when buyers seemed willing to make small leaps above “market value”. We’ve reduced prices on several of these in recent weeks, just enough to get them in current market range, and seen exponential increases in activity levels (inquiries and showings). 

For most larger condos, prices are still at their peak. A few buildings are even still appreciating at the moment. Smaller condo prices are more competitive and are generally down a little from their peaks but still 50% to 100% more than they were a year and a half ago. Please let me know if you want to discuss selling.

Buyers: There are more choices now than there have been in two years. Prices have leveled off and are softening a bit. Please contact Teressa or Kevin for assistance.

New Home Sales (Resales too)

The chart below shows single family home stats for June. New Home sales are still going strong with 464 closed sales in June versus 430 in May. Resales were even stronger, 513 in June versus 441 in May. Keep in mind that these numbers actually lag the market by at least 30 to 60 days. This actually goes for any stats based on closings - whether for houses or condos. So the closings in June mainly went under contract in April. New home sales, allowing for construction, could have gone under contract any time in the previous six months. 

Current Seasonal Market Trends Versus Historical Trends

Real estate sales in most markets tend to perform predictably through the seasons most years. I tracked oceanfront condo sales and listings diligently for many years and saw consistent seasonal patterns. Starting around 2017, the patterns became erratic and I didn’t follow them for a few years. Of course 2020 was not normal in any way. I’ve started tracking this again starting with 2021.

It’s important to remember that, even though the numbers of sales go up and down from month to month, there are still people buying and selling every day of every month. Also, the prices do not necessarily follow the same pattern as the sales activity (number of contracts) so, if you want to sell, don't wait until the busy sales season to list. The graphs below will show you why spring prices aren’t always the highest even though that’s when the most contracts are written.

_________________________________________________________________

Seasonal New Contracts

Let’s start with new contracts by month. Note that this is different from closings. As previously mentioned, closings typically lag contracts by 30 to 60 days. Contracts give you a better idea of the market at a specific time. Closings actually tell you how things were 60 days earlier.

The graph below shows oceanfront condo sales by contract date for 2013 through 2016 with the 4 years superimposed over each other. 

What’s striking is how similar the patterns are from year to year. Sales start out strong in January – already stronger than midsummer. They peak in March and April then drift down and flatten out during May through August. There is generally another smaller peak in early fall and then sales are pretty strong through November until they drop precipitously in December. One other thing of note is that there seem to be approximately the same number of overall sales each year. The patterns almost track right over each other. As I have reported a number of times, the yearly pace of oceanfront condo sales stayed in a remarkably narrow range for over a decade, between 1000 and 1200 sales per year.

Below is a similar graph showing 2021, 2022, and the first four months of 2023*.

Although the spring peak is not as pronounced in 2022, the yearly patterns are very similar to those from years earlier, particularly 2021. One difference is that the number of sales is notably lower each year (unlike 2013 to 2016 when the number of sales each year was very similar). I doubt this is a long-term trend. The 2021 market, and 2022 to a lesser degree, were just exceptional.

* Our MLS system does not provide contract dates until after a sale has closed so it’s impossible to obtain reliable contract dates until 2 to 3 months later, once the sales have closed. This is why the graph only shows the sales by contract date through April for 2023.

Seasonal New Listings

The graph below shows new oceanfront condo listings per month for 2013 to 2016.

Again the monthly listing totals for each year are superimposed over each other. This looks a lot like the pattern for sales contracts with a big peak in March and April although there’s not as much of the peak in the fall. When I mentioned that prices are not necessarily lower in the spring, it’s because, even though buyer activity is heavier, there are also lots of new listings coming in at the same time to keep the supply relatively high.

This graph shows new oceanfront condo listings for 2021 through June of this year. 

The patterns, particularly for 2022, look very similar to the ones from years past. 2021 and 2023 both show peaks in the spring/early summer. We’ll have to see where 2023 goes from here.

Why Wait Until Spring to List? 

These listing graphs lead me to a topic I mention every year about this time (and I will bring it up again for the next two months). Why do people wait until spring to list their properties for sale? This especially makes no sense for investors who rely on rental income. Why pay the carrying costs through the off-season to sell in the spring right before income picks up again? If you think you may be selling within the next 12 months, now is the best time to get it on the market.  A contract in the next several weeks would put your closing date right at the end of the peak summer season. Please contact me if you would like to discuss this.

Please Contact The Beach Pro Team If:

You are thinking of buying or selling an oceanfront or resort condo in our area

                                                                  Or

You are considering moving to our area or know someone else who is

                                                                  Or

You are an agent who has clients thinking of moving here or buying or selling in our area

                                                                  Or

You currently own a condo in our area and want a permanent home

That’s all for now. Check out our usual Grand Strand Market Reports, Sales and Listing Updates, my Best Buys, and new Beach Pro Team reviews.

See you at the beach!

Here is a new review published on Google. 

• Gene is the consummate real estate professional. We have done multiple real estate transactions with him and he is knowledgeable in every area. He know the myrtle Beach real estate like the back of his hand. You can always know your in good hands using Gene and his staff. Mark. Caribbean. Myrtle Beach.

We just started collecting Google reviews. At this time we have over 150 Zillow reviews which can be seen on our website Beach Pro Team reviews. 

Grand Strand Market Report - May 2023